This information was written at an early date before the 2024 season ended. Statistics are subject to change.
2023
The 2023 San Diego Padres' season was, by all accounts, one of the most disappointing in recent MLB history. Despite an incredibly talented roster loaded with stars, the team fell flat, finishing the season with an 82-80 record, just two games above .500. For a team with one of the highest payrolls in baseball and a roster that many considered a potential World Series contender, falling two wins short of a playoff berth was a bitter pill to swallow.
The Padres presented Fernando Tatis Jr. with his Platinum and Gold Gloves of the 2023 season.
The roster in 2023 was stacked. Fernando Tatis Jr. returned from suspension to claim a Platinum Glove, showcasing his elite defensive skills. Ha-Seong Kim had a breakout year, not only capturing a Gold Glove but also putting up his best offensive numbers since joining the league. Blake Snell earned the NL Cy Young Award, dominating hitters throughout the season. Xander Bogaerts, a two-time World Series champion, was expected to be a cornerstone of the infield. The bullpen had some promising arms, including Tom Cosgrove, who had an unreal debut season. Yet, despite all of this talent, the Padres couldn’t put it together when it mattered most.
Their struggles were baffling. On paper, this team should have been a contender for the NL West crown, if not the National League pennant. But instead, they finished behind the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, the latter of which made an improbable run to the World Series, only to fall short in the final series. The Padres, meanwhile, saw flashes of their potential late in the season. In September 2023, they posted the best performance of any team in MLB, going on an 8-game winning streak and nearly clinching a wildcard spot. It was a glimpse of what this roster was capable of when everything clicked. Unfortunately, that surge came too late.
Many pointed fingers at General Manager A.J. Preller for overestimating the strength of the team. Preller had assembled what many called a "Dream Team," and it seemed like he was banking on that roster’s raw talent to carry them to a World Series title. That confidence, however, didn’t translate to wins. With such an expensive payroll, the team faced tough decisions in the offseason. Preller was forced to let go of key players, most notably Seth Lugo and Blake Snell. Both pitchers went on to have stellar seasons elsewhere, a testament to the strong player development within the Padres organization but also a reminder of the high cost of San Diego’s payroll constraints.
Offseason Signings
Yuki Matsui celebrates as he strikes out fearsome hitter Shohei Ohtani.
Heading into 2024, the expectations were lower. With several key players departing and the roster being reshaped, fans in San Diego tempered their hopes. Despite that, the fan base remained incredibly loyal. Petco Park set numerous ticket sales records, with fans continuing to show up in droves to support their team. The offseason signings reflected the new reality of the franchise: calculated risks and their hope for the future. One of the biggest additions was Yuki Matsui, a prominent Japanese reliever. Matsui's season began with ups and downs, but by the end of the year, he had settled into a respectable 3.38 ERA. While his performance wasn’t dominant, it was a positive step forward, and his gradual improvement throughout the year was a sign of promise.
Midseason brought a major shake-up when the Padres traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees in exchange for a package of prospects. Michael King, Jhony Brito, Kyle Higashioka, Drew Thorpe, and Randy Vasquez were the return, and while this deal initially seemed like a step back for a team looking to contend, it proved to be an important move in rebuilding the bullpen. The Padres' bullpen, which had been a strength in 2023, had suffered from the offseason departures, and this infusion of young talent brought much-needed stability.
Micheal King, pitching against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Hidden Beneath the Public Eye: Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar
Two players, in particular, emerged as unexpected standouts in 2024: Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar. Merrill, a highly touted prospect, had one of the best rookie seasons in Padres' history. By the season’s end, he had hit 24 home runs, just three shy of the franchise rookie record. His power at the plate, combined with his defensive versatility, made him a key piece of the team’s future. Profar, on the other hand, was a familiar face to Padres fans. He had played with the team before, but expectations were relatively low when he returned. Yet, Profar delivered in ways no one anticipated, finishing the season with a .285 batting average, 20 home runs, and career highs in hits and RBIs. Profar’s emergence as one of the best hitters in the league was one of the most surprising storylines of the Padres' 2024 campaign.
Padres' Jackson Merrill celebrating his first career home run.
Season Signings
The Padres’ front office also made some savvy moves as the season went on. Signing Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez was a masterstroke. Cease, who had been a runner-up for the Cy Young in 2022, brought immediate credibility to the starting rotation. While he didn’t replicate his near-Cy Young form, his presence as a consistent starter helped stabilize the pitching staff. Arraez, meanwhile, was a revelation. Known for his ability to hit for average, Arraez continued to rack up batting titles, anchoring the Padres' offense with his incredible consistency at the plate. Even veteran infielder Donovan Solano, signed at the age of 36, proved to be one of the league’s top veteran hitters, adding valuable leadership and clutch hitting throughout the season.
Dylan Cease celebrates after throwing his first career no-hitter and 2nd no-hitter in Padres' history.
Now What Made a Difference?
Statistically speaking, In 2023, the Padres had the second-best bullpen in the league but were one of the worst offensive teams, ranking near the bottom in several key hitting categories. Their inability to consistently produce runs hampered their ability to win games, even when their pitching staff kept them competitive.
In 2024, the Padres transformed into an offensive powerhouse, leading the league with the #1 ranked offense. Their pitching, while no longer elite, was still serviceable, ranking 15th in the league. The shift in focus from pitching to hitting allowed the team to win more games, especially as their offense became more dynamic and consistent. The roster changes, the emergence of unexpected stars like Merrill and Profar, and key signings like Arraez and Cease all contributed to the team’s turnaround.
During the first half of the 2024 season, however, the Padres were not such a renowned team compared to the 2nd half of the season. The Padres went 41-40 through the first 81 games of the season, or the halfway point, showing that the Padres of 2024 were showing the sad signs that the 2023 Padres showed.
The All-Star Break
The Padres after the All-Star break was a different Padres before the All-Star break. The Padres currently have a 40-17 record since the All-Star break, marking the best team in the entire league since then. Manny Machado has 16 home runs since the All-Star break, .299 average and 52 RBI’s and Jackson Merrill has 12 home runs .315 average and 40 RBI’s.
Extra Innings
The Padres are also 10-2 in extra-inning games. Those wins are really responsible for where the Padres are where they are at. Last season, the Padres had the worst record in the MLB for extra-inning games, while this season they are the best in extra innings, partly due to their formidable offense.
Injuries
Injuries to star players like Tatis Jr. and Bogaerts posed challenges throughout the year. Both spent significant time on the IL, with Bogaerts sidelined for months. However, the team didn’t falter in their absence, thanks in large part to the depth of the roster. David Peralta and Donovan Solano stepped up, proving themselves to be reliable contributors. When Bogaerts returned after the All-Star break, the team caught fire, going 17-3 in one 20-game stretch and putting themselves firmly back in playoff contention.
Xander Boagerts suffering from a left-fractured shoulder injury in a game against the Braves.
In 2023, injuries were everywhere, from pitchers to starting players making it hard for the Padres to win. Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Micheal Wacha, Jake Cronenworth, and many more were injured for long periods of time or even season ending like Cronenworth’s. Machado also had an injury that he never fixed until the end of the 2023 season. Our roster in 2023, proved its vulnerabilities, and made it so the Padres could not advance to the playoffs last year.
This year, injuries have not been as bad, due to the lack of injury, but also our deep roster, where we now have enough good players in the minors and majors to sub in for a starter for injury. Thanks to the Juan Soto trade and also minor and major league signing before and during the 2024 season, the Padres were able to still stand strong despite the injuries.
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill has been a terrifying force to other competitors. However, more specifically, Merrill has six game-tying hits or bombs in the eighth inning or later this season. This makes him one of the most clutch hitters in MLB at the moment, and partially responsible on his own, for why the Padres have as many wins as they have.
Jackson Merrill hitting a walk-off home run against the Mets.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the 2024 Padres demonstrated a remarkable transformation from their disappointing 2023 season. While the previous year saw a team brimming with individual talent but struggling to put it all together, the 2024 squad found a balance between offense and pitching, making the most of their depth and new acquisitions. The loss of key players, such as Blake Snell and Juan Soto, initially appeared to signal a step back, but smart trades, the emergence of prospects like Jackson Merrill, and breakout seasons from unexpected stars like Jurickson Profar revitalized the team. Their once mid-tier offense surged to become the best in the league, and though the pitching regressed slightly, the infusion of new talent and veteran leadership helped stabilize their overall performance.
Ultimately, what set the 2024 Padres apart was their ability to adapt and evolve. The front office made strategic decisions that allowed the team to stay competitive, despite major changes to the roster. The contributions of veteran signings, like Luis Arraez and Donovan Solano, combined with the resilience of the backup lineup during injuries to stars like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts, kept the Padres in the playoff race. By the end of the season, the team had come together in a way that eluded them in 2023, proving that a more cohesive, smarter approach was key to unlocking their full potential.
Sources:
https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/best-mlb-record-after-all-star-break
https://www.mlb.com/news/fernando-tatis-jr-makes-platinum-glove-caliber-play
https://apnews.com/article/padres-xander-bogaerts-hurt-70ce51752adb9d9e520d9e2c51a96c29
https://www.si.com/mlb/jackson-merrill-hit-another-clutch-home-run-to-give-padres-a-walk-off-win
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